Copper Prices Fluctuate Upward, BC Copper Most-Traded Contract Closed Higher [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, February 13: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2503 contract opened at 68,520 yuan/mt, closing with a bullish candlestick as the 5-day moving average crossed the candlestick body. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 03 contract fluctuated downward after opening, driven by bulls reducing positions, hitting bottom at 68,380 yuan/mt. Bulls gained the upper hand in the tug-of-war, leading to a rebound in the futures market center. During the morning trading session, the futures market gave up part of its gains as bulls reduced positions. In the afternoon session, the most-traded BC copper 03 contract climbed to 69,160 yuan/mt with increased bullish positions but pulled back slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 69,000 yuan/mt, up 770 yuan/mt or 1.13%. The increase was mainly attributed to bullish position increases, with open interest reaching 5,576 lots, up 36 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reaching 8,951 lots, up 388 lots from the previous trading day.

Macro side, US January CPI rose 3% YoY, exceeding the previous value and forecast of 2.9%, and increased 0.5% MoM, higher than the expected 0.4%. The data indicated rising inflationary pressure in the US. However, concerns over previous tariff policies were quickly digested by the market. The US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back, while progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks boosted the euro, leading to strong fluctuations in copper prices, which closed higher.

SHFE copper 2503 contract settled at 77,560 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2503 contract price of 69,000 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 77,970 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2503 contract and the BC copper 2503 contract was -410 yuan/mt, maintaining a backwardation and narrowing compared to the previous trading day.